Patient choice at Derby PCT


I have been extremely impressed by the level of commitment, support and knowledge (both of our circumstances and the optimum modelling techniques) displayed by the Selective Analytics team and we would certainly use them again on similar projects.
David Arrowsmith, Head of Information, Derbyshire County PCT

Predicting patient preference before reconfiguration

Derbyshire PCT were closing one hospital to the East of Derby City and moving all its services to a new hospital to the West of Derby City. The move had been planned for some time, but questions arose as to the impact on patient numbers, especially on out-of-PCT activity at nearby Nottingham.

Summary of the work

After our initial discussions we analysed 3/4 million patient activity records from the previous year. This analysis exposed certain trends and in consultation with Derbyshire PCT we suggested two main scenarios to be considered further.We then met with both Derbyshire PCT and Nottingham PCT view both historic and predicted patient activity geographically and statistically.

For the final report we processed a large number of different types of patient activity, e.g. InPatients: elective and non-elective. This in itself revealed useful statistics, such as the facts about ambulance arrivals at A&E. We also applied the two scenarios to all these different groups. The final report was 12 pages long with an additional 17 maps showing different overlays and statistics.

Client Benefits

The client has told us that they were very pleased with the work we did. They have used to the scenarios to set an expected level and upper limit on likely cross-PCT patient activity and plan their services accordingly. Key benefits were:

  • Clear, evidence-based information on which to make decisions
  • Provable research base through the participation of two leading academics
  • Relevant, business statistics to aid overall clarity of results
  • Easy to access information through mapping activity geographically